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Archive for March 2012

How valuable are your players offensively? – OPS Washington Nationals

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Who would you rather play?  An A range cf with 0 arm or a B+/-1?  Do you start a player with 200+/D power or a player with 160/B?  How do you decide.  Well I went deeper into the players on my team and created a formula to figure out the true value of offense a player brings to my team.  Does a player with less defense have enough offense compensate?

First lets take a look at numbers vs Right Handed pitching and compare it to actual player stats through 4 weeks.

I basically did a Onbase Percentage by calculating the total number of hits and walks on the card and divided by 500.  That would give me a percentage of on-base on all rolls off of the batter’s card.  Next I figured out the Slugging Percentage of the card.  Singles valued at 1, doubles 2, triple 3, HR 4. Add all those results together and divide by 500-#walks.  Add those two numbers together and you get cOPS.

So I did that with all my player cards and this is what came out.

VS. RH
Name Pos: RH whp 2b 3b HR cOBP cSLG cOPS
Napoli c 225 87 33 0 55 0.450 0.814 1.264
Reyes ss 207 14 25 31 12 0.414 0.650 1.064
Gordon lf 203 57 46 6 22 0.406 0.609 1.015
Upton rf 186 54 35 8 31 0.372 0.619 0.991
Morse 1b 174 34 33 0 41 0.348 0.635 0.983
Howard 1b 165 71 18 0 50 0.330 0.611 0.941
Pujols 1b 176 32 14 0 39 0.352 0.588 0.940
Morgan cf 201 39 24 13 9 0.402 0.518 0.920
Posey c 212 48 0 0 17 0.424 0.476 0.900
Jones 3b 159 42 44 3 28 0.318 0.548 0.866
Bourn cf 200 40 28 10 2 0.400 0.465 0.865
Mauer c 192 32 34 0 9 0.384 0.472 0.856
Pedroia 2b 177 55 23 4 16 0.354 0.452 0.806
Longoria 3b 150 93 19 0 27 0.300 0.386 0.686
Ankiel cf 129 31 25 0 20 0.258 0.390 0.648
Suzuki rf 134 0 7 6 6 0.268 0.342 0.610
Vizquel 3b 135 18 17 6 0 0.270 0.303 0.573
McDonald ss 104 18 17 5 9 0.208 0.290 0.498
Sardinha c 155 133 8 0 0 0.310 0.082 0.392
Johnson 1b 66 56 0 0 10 0.132 0.090 0.222

Napoli, Reyes, & Gordon all have cOPS over 1.0.  Upton, Morse, Howard, Morgan, Pujols, & Posey all have .900 or better cOPS.  (Howard is in the minors, oops).   Lets take a look and see ow each players cOPS compares to actual OPS stats  (https://sablebaseball.wordpress.com/category/stats-washington-nationals/)

Name cOPS OPS cOPS vs OPS
Napoli 1.264 1.014 0.250
Reyes 1.064 0.87 0.199
Gordon 1.015 0.725 0.290
Upton 0.991 1.152 0.161
Morse 0.983 0.837 0.146
Howard 0.941 0.000
Pujols 0.940 0.878 0.061
Morgan 0.920 0.000
Posey 0.900 1.000 0.100
Jones 0.866 0.000
Bourn 0.865 0.773 0.092
Mauer 0.856 1.000 0.144
Pedroia 0.806 0.702 0.104
Longoria 0.686 0.911 0.225
Ankiel 0.648 0.750 0.102
Suzuki 0.610 0.375 0.235
Vizquel 0.573 0.000
McDonald 0.498 0.000
Sardinha 0.392 1.333 0.942
Johnson 0.222 0.000

 

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Written by Dom

March 29, 2012 at 9:10 pm

Posted in OPS

Tampa Bay Rays (5-7) 2nd Place AL

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Mike Kennedy asked that I do what I did for San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, & New York since it helped turn those teams around.  So here we go.

Tampa Bay is the only team in the league that plays on turf.  The infield is solid with A Range at 1st, ss, 3rd.  The Outfield however is a totally different story.  B in lf & rf & B+ in cf.   Keep in mind that on turf basically its a -1 to Range Rating compared to grass in the infield.  In the outfield, all the outs are the same as grass, but if you blow a range play on grass you may only give up singles.  On turf however everything is twice as bad, cutting off the ball is practically nonexistant and if you miss a range play the ball is rolling to the wall at full speed.  Its will be a double or triple and runners will be scoring, and in the rare instance of dropping in for a single its a stretch 2b?

This is my suggested 25 man roster for the Tampa Bay Rays.

First my suggested 25 man roster for the Mariners.

Pitchers Batters
1. Kuroda 12. Lawrie 23. Pence
2. Hellickson 13. Braun 24. Gonzalez
3. Humber 14. Cora 25. Fielder
4. Johnson 15. Young
5. Moscosco 16. Snyder
6. Bastardo 17. Bonifacio
7. Jansen 18. Hart
8. Santos 19. Blanco
9. Storen 20. Ryan
10. Pestano 21. McCutchen
11. Adams 22. Dinkleman

Now using that 25 man roster, lets see what we can do with the starting 9.

current suggested Pro Con
c Blanco c Blanco
1b Gonazlez 1b Gonzalez
2b Dinkleman 2b Dinkleman
ss Ryan ss Ryan
3b Lawrie 3b Lawrie
lf Braun lf Braun
cf McCutchen cf McCutchen
rf Pence rf Pence
dh Fielder dh Fielder

Maybe a shakeup of the order then…

 lf Braun
 2b  Dinkleman
 rf  Pence
1b  Gonzalez
 dh  Fielder
3b  Lawrie
c  Blanco
ss  Ryan
cf  McCutchen

So Mike’s playing who he should where he should.  The only other way to improve the team is by trading.  Lets see what we can do to improve this team with other teams rosters.  He’ll have to sacrifice a little bat for improved defense.

Possible trades:

Ryan Braun & Jeremy Hellickson to New York for Brett Gardner & Ian Kennedy.  Reason: improves defense from B to A in lf (thats HUGE on turf  48& – 72% (+24#s).

Huroki Kuroda to Washington for Nyjer Morgan. Reason A Range lf with speed for a pitcher he hasn’t used.

Hunter Pence & Cory Hart/Chris Young to San Diego for Torii Hunter & Jason Heyward.  Reason: TB improves defense in rf from B (48%) to A (72%)

Brian Dinkleman to Oakland for Brandon Phillips. Reason: TB improves defense at 2b B 48% to A 72%.

I beleive if Tampa Bay makes these trades he will see immediate improvement in his defense.  25% more success on range plays which leads to more outs and not extending innings and giving away extra outs (which is the reason for his losses).  This also will keep the manager in good spirits and not be demoralized which in turn leads to a better attitude and less managerial mistakes.

The easiest way to win a series in this league is using the emotions of your opponent against them.  Mike, Alvin, Dom, Ken, & Sherwood can all be beaten if they are not 100% focused on managing their team.  Getting a beat down causes them to leave pitchers in to die, which causes them to give up even more runs and putting the game out of reach, rather than bringing in a releiver to stop the bleeding and give the team a chance to make a comeback.   A mistake while managing a pitching staff can prove costly for the current series and the next since you’ll be facing suspensions.  Tampa Bay lost 2 relievers to suspensions vs Boston this week because of blown range plays, which extended innings the week before vs Florida, losing focus Mike made a mistake using a short 4.2 innings.

So please, please make these trades.  Not only will it improve your team’s defense, it will improve your personal chemistry (attitude) which in turn keeps everybody else happy.  Good Times for all!

Or don’t make the trades and buy pizzas and soda for everyone. That improves morale too!

Written by Dom

March 26, 2012 at 2:13 pm

Series MVPs: Week 4

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St Louis @ Washington 

  1. Napoli
  2. Mauer
  3. Carpenter

New York @ Oakland

  1. Farnsworth
  2. Hanrahan
  3. Peralta

San Diego @ Seattle

  1. Verlander
  2. Andrus
  3. Gonzalez, C

Tampa Bay @ Boston

  1. Kershaw
  2. McCutchen
  3. Davis

Florida @ Atlanta

  1. Cabrera, M
  2. Nathan
  3. Tulowitzki

Written by Dom

March 25, 2012 at 10:27 pm

Posted in Series MVP

Series MVPs: Week 3

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Boston @ Seattle

  1. I. Davis
  2. M. Pineda
  3. J. Shields

Florida @ Tampa Bay

  1. Beltran
  2. Lawrie
  3. Vazquez

Oakland @ Washington

  1. Fister
  2. McCarthy
  3. Werth

Atlanta @ New York

  1. Granderson
  2. Hanrahan
  3. Cano

St Louis @ San Diego

  1. J. Bautista
  2. T. Hunter
  3. K. Lohse

Written by Dom

March 25, 2012 at 10:21 pm

Posted in Series MVP

SABLE League Pitcher Usage through week 4

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SABLE Name End Week 3 Week 4
ATL Hernandez Felix 35 7 2/3 RAIN 4 1/3 RAIN REST 6 1/3
ATL Lincecum Tim 30 7 2/3 RAIN RAIN 5 REST 7 1/3
ATL Hudson Tim 30 8 RAIN RAIN 8 REST
ATL Gallardo Yovani 30 RAIN RAIN REST
ATL Myers Brett 30/Long RAIN RAIN REST
ATL Chacin Jhoulys 25 8 RAIN RAIN REST 3 2/3
ATL Jurrjens Jair 25 7 RAIN RAIN 4 REST
ATL Coleman Louis Long RAIN 4 2/3 RAIN REST 3 2/3
ATL Martinez Cristhian Long 0 RAIN RAIN 2 REST 1 2/3 2 2/3
ATL Feliz Neftali Short RAIN RAIN REST
ATL Kimbrel Craig Short 1 1/3 1 1 RAIN RAIN 2 2/3 REST 1 2/3
ATL Putz J.J. Short  1/3 RAIN RAIN 3 REST
ATL Benoit Joaquin Short RAIN RAIN 1 REST
BOS Kershaw Clayton 35 6 2/3 RAIN 9 REST 9
BOS Cain Matt 30 9 RAIN 8 2/3 REST
BOS Garza Matt 25 7 RAIN REST 5
BOS Price David 25 RAIN 6 REST
BOS Pineda Michael 25 9 RAIN 9 REST 5
BOS Leake Mike 25/Long 5 RAIN REST 2 1/3
BOS Hawksworth Blake Long 1 RAIN REST 4
BOS Walden Jordan short RAIN REST
BOS Wood Kerry short RAIN REST
BOS Janssen Casey short RAIN REST
BOS Loe Kameron short RAIN REST  2/3
BOS Melancon Mark short 2 1/3 RAIN  1/3 REST 1
BOS Rivera Mariano short RAIN REST
BOS Peacock Brad 3 RAIN 2 REST
FL Bailey Homer 25 REST
FL Beckett Josh 25 9 7 REST 7
FL Beachy Brandon 25 8 1/3 2 2/3 REST
FL Vazquez Javier 25 5 9 REST
FL Hanson Tommy 25 7 REST 8 1/3
FL Tomlin Josh 25 3 1/3 8 1/3 REST 8 1/3
FL Wakefield Tim 25/Long REST
FL Herndon David Long REST
FL Mujica Edward Long 6  2/3 2 2/3 REST
FL Nathan Joe Short 2 1 2/3 REST  1/3
FL Peralta Joel Short 1 1/3 REST  2/3
FL Nunez Leo Short REST
FL Dotel Octavio Short 4  2/3 REST  2/3
FL Betancourt Rafael Short 2 2/3  2/3 1 REST 1 2/3
NYY Kennedy Ian 30 RAIN 8 4 RAIN REST 8
NYY Maholm Paul 25 RAIN 4 RAIN 3 1/3 REST
NYY Nova Ivan 25/Long RAIN 3 RAIN 8 REST 3
NYY Colon Bartolo 25/Long RAIN 3 1/3 R6 RAIN R4 R3 R2 REST 5
NYY Strasburg Stephen 20 RAIN 6 2/3 RAIN  2/3 DL 15 DL 14 REST DL 12 DL 11 DL 10
NYY Ayala Luis Long RAIN RAIN 4 1/3 REST
NYY Alburquerque Al Long RAIN 5 5 2/3 RAIN S S S REST 2 5
NYY Noesi Hector Long/20 RAIN RAIN REST
NYY Venters Jonny Short RAIN 1 4 RAIN 2 REST
NYY Axford John Short RAIN 2 2 1/3 RAIN 1 3 1/3 REST
NYY Hanrahan Joel Short RAIN 1 1 2 RAIN 1 REST 2
NYY Wade Cory Short RAIN RAIN 3 1/3 REST
NYY Uehara Koji Short RAIN  1/3  2/3 RAIN 3 REST
OAK Bumgarner Madison 30 3 2/3 REST
OAK McCarthy Brandon 30 8 9 REST
OAK Doug Fister 30/Long 7 7 1/3 REST
OAK Cueto Johnny 25 REST 6 1/3
OAK Lilly Ted 25 6 6 REST 5
OAK Collmenter Josh 25/Long 5 8 1/3 REST 8
OAK Luebke Cory Long/25 2 REST 3
OAK Aceves Alfredo Long/20 REST
OAK Oliver Darren short 2 2 REST
OAK Farnsworth Kyle short 1 2/3 REST 1 1
OAK Reynolds Matt short 1  1/3 REST 2 2/3
SD Halladay Roy 40 RAIN 3 1/3 9 REST 8
SD Verlander Justin 40 5 1/3 RAIN 9 REST 9
SD Haren Dan 35/Long RAIN 1 1/3 9 REST
SD Santana Ervin 30 RAIN 9 REST 3
SD Hamels Cole 30 RAIN 9 1 2/3 inj 5 REST INJ 3 INJ 2 INJ 1
SD Davis Wade 25 RAIN REST
SD Sale Chris Long RAIN 2 4 2/3 REST
SD Villanueva Carlos Long/20 RAIN 3 2/3 3 5 1/3 REST 3 1/3
SD Betancourt Rafael Short RAIN REST
SD Papelbon Jonathan Short 1 RAIN 2 REST 1 1/3
SD Robertson David Short  1/3 RAIN REST
SD Balfour Grant Short RAIN REST
SD Perez Chris Short RAIN REST  1/3
SD Downs Scott Short 2 1/3 RAIN REST
SEA Shields James 40 6 9 REST
SEA Weaver Jered 35 8 9 REST 6 2/3
SEA Hudson Daniel 30 4 1/3 REST
SEA Zimmermann Jordan 25 2 1/3 REST 5 1/3
SEA Moseley Dustin 25 REST
SEA Stauffer Tim 25 5 REST 6
SEA Latos Mat 25 4 2/3 5 DL 15 DL14 DL13 DL 12
SEA Daniel Bard Long 2 2 4 1/3 REST 1 1/3
SEA Clippard Tyler Long 3 REST
SEA LeCure Sam Long/20 5 2/3 4 REST
SEA Cordero Francisco Short REST 1 2/3
SEA Cruz Juan Short REST
SEA Soria Joakim Short REST
SEA League Brandon Short 2 1 2 REST 1 1/3 2 1/3
SEA Cordero Francisco Short REST
SEA O’Flaherty Eric 2 1/3 2 2/3 REST 2 1/3
STL Lee Cliff 35 9 9 REST
STL Carpenter Chris 30 9 2/3 7 2/3 REST 7 2/3
STL Garcia Jaime 25 7 2/3 REST 3
STL Lohse Kyle 25 8 9 REST
STL Dickie R.A. 25/Long 3 2/3 REST 8
STL Vogelsong Ryan 25/Long 5 1/3 REST 1 1/3
STL Ogando Alexi 25/Long 7 1/3 REST 4 1/3
STL Grilli Jason Long 1 2/3 REST
STL Lynn Lance Long/20 REST
STL Bell Heath Short REST
STL Salas Fernando Short 2  1/3 REST
STL Romo Sergio Short  2/3 1 1/3 1 1/3 REST  2/3
TB Kuroda Hiroki 25 RAIN REST
TB Marcum Shaun 25 RAIN REST
TB Hellickson Jeremy 25 RAIN 9 9 REST 1 1/3
TB Johnson Josh 25 RAIN 8 6 2/3 REST
TB Humber Philip 25/Long RAIN 7 1/3 3 1/3 REST
TB Floyd Gavin 25/Long 7 1/3 RAIN 6 2/3 REST 4 2/3
TB Moscoso Guillermo 25/Long RAIN 9 REST 4
TB Jansen Kenley Short RAIN 1 REST 1 1/3 4
TB Bastardo Antonio Short  1/3 RAIN REST 2 2/3
TB Santos Sergio Short  1/3 RAIN 1 2 1/3 REST 2 2/3
TB Pestano Vinnie Short RAIN REST 3 1/3
TB Storen Drew Short RAIN 1 2/3 1 REST S S S
TB Adams Mike Short RAIN 1 1/3 4 2/3 REST S S S
WASH Jon Lester 25 RAIN 7 REST
WASH Clay Buchholtz 25 RAIN 8 6 2/3 REST 6
WASH Jeff Niemann 25 RAIN 5 REST 6
WASH Millwood Kevin 25 RAIN 6 REST
WASH Bronson Arroyo 25 RAIN 6 9 REST 4
WASH Jeff Karstens 25/Long RAIN 2 1 2/3 3 1 1/3 REST 4
WASH Scott Baker 25/Long RAIN 6 6 REST
WASH Greg Holland Long RAIN 2 1 1 2/3 REST 3
WASH Aroldis Chapman Short RAIN 1 1 2/3  2/3 REST  2/3 1
WASH Carlos Marmol Short RAIN 2 1 1/3 REST
WASH Bill Bray Short RAIN 0 REST
WASH Andrew Bailey Short RAIN REST
WASH Valverde Jose Short RAIN  1/3 1 REST 1 1/3
WASH Madson Ryan Short RAIN 1 1  2/3 REST 1

Only 1 illegal usage in week 3.  TB pitched Mike Adams for 4.2 IP.  He was suspended week 4 for 3 games and Drew Storen was the random player selected to be suspended as well.

Written by Dom

March 25, 2012 at 9:54 pm

Posted in Pitching Usage

Clutch Hitting – San Diego

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During week 4’s games San Diego earned Clutch Hitting his next two home series.  Those two home series are week 8 vs Florida & Week 10 vs Atlanta.

Written by Dom

March 25, 2012 at 7:58 pm

League Transactions Week 4

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SABLE BASEBALL TRANSACTION SHEET
Week # 4
WAIVER PICK PLACED ON DISABLED LIST
Atlanta McCann Brian ATL 7 15 30 45 60
Boston Carmona Fausto CLE 7 15 30 45 60
Florida Adams Ryan BAL 7 15 30 45 60
New York Cook Aaron COL 7 15 30 45 60
Oakland Blake Casey LA 7 15 30 45 60
San Diego Williams Jerome ANA 7 15 30 45 60
Seattle Fox Jake BAL 7 15 30 45 60
St Louis Duda Lucas NYM 7 15 30 45 60
Tampa Bay Hudson Orlando SD 7 15 30 45 60
Washington Vizquel Omar CHA 7 15 30 45 60
                       
List of   Eligible Transactions
Added to 25 Man Roster Optioned to   the Minors
Activated from the DL Released to   Waivers
Acquired in Trade Suspension –   Usage
DL Replacement Callup DL Sent to   Minors
Team PLAYER NAME TRANSACTION
OAK Lowrie Jed Optioned to the Minors
OAK Overbay Lyle Optioned to the Minors
OAK DeJesus David Added to 25 Man Roster
OAK Aceves Alfredo Added to 25 Man Roster
TB Adams Mike Suspension – Usage
TB Storen Drew Suspension – Usage
BOS Leake Mike Added to 25 Man Roster
BOS Peacock Brad Optioned to the Minors
SEA Zimmermann Jordan Activated from the DL
SEA Revere Ben Optioned to the Minors
SEA Fox Jake Added to 25 Man Roster
FL Adams Ryan Optioned to the Minors
FL Herndon David Optioned to the Minors
TB Lavarnway Ryan Optioned to the Minors
TB Hart Corey Optioned to the Minors
TB Bastardo Antonio Added to 25 Man Roster
TB Snyder Chris Added to 25 Man Roster
SEA Clippard Tyler Optioned to the Minors
SEA Bard Daniel Added to 25 Man Roster
FL Clippard Tyler Acquired in Trade after series
SEA Kemp Matt Acquired in Trade after series

Written by Dom

March 25, 2012 at 12:25 pm