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Archive for October 2012

Pitching Rankings World Series Teams

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This analysis might just show why San Francisco has a 3-0 lead on Detroit in the World Series.   Lets compare the starting pitchers of each game and see if cPvA rating might have something to do with it.

First here are the pitcher rankings from best to worst for the Worls Series teams:

Name Team cPvA vs L cPvL vs R cPvR
Romo, Sergio SF 67.6 40 66.8 39 68.3
Benoit, Joaquin DET 93.6 82 104.5 56 82.7
Bumgarner, Madison SF 98.6 56 84.3 82 112.9
Cain, Matt SF 107.0 132 159.0 26 55.0
Verlander, Justin DET 108.2 80 104.9 87 111.6
Kontos, George SF 111.9 98 123.8 75 100.0
Dotel, Octavio DET 117.7 143 168.1 43 67.3
Valverde, Jose DET 124.3 121 144.6 80 104.1
Smyly, Drew DET 126.8 78 110.4 114 143.2
Casilla,Santiago SF 128.4 148 174.1 46 82.8
Vogelsong, Ryan SF 130.9 124 148.8 88 113.1
Scherzer, Max DET 131.5 166 193.6 36 69.4
Zito, Barry SF 131.6 59 83.1 149 180.2
Fister,Doug DET 132.2 102 129.4 108 134.9
Sanchez, Anibal DET 139.5 102 127.4 126 151.6
Mijares, Jose SF 140.0 74 97.8 156 182.1
Villarreal, Brayan DET 143.1 158 180.7 82 105.5
Alburqueque, Al DET 150.2 76 100.6 173 199.8
Marte,Luis DET 154.8 182 226.5 50 83.0
Affeldt, Jeremy SF 157.6 135 162.6 127 152.7
Downs, Darin DET 160.4 104 128.7 166 192.2
Balester, Collin DET 166.7 214 245.4 35 88.0
Below, Duane DET 168.2 151 179.1 122 157.3
Lincecum, Tim SF 170.0 130 158.4 148 181.6
Hensley, Clay SF 185.4 145 170.7 175 200.2
Porcello, Rick DET 188.9 181 210.7 141 167.2
Loux, Shane SF 191.8 101 141.1 217 242.5
Coke, Phil DET 198.0 117 142.1 224 253.9
Mota, Guillermo SF 200.3 245 254.1 107 146.6
Lopez, Javier SF 210.9 61 87.2 308 334.6
Putkonen, Luke DET 221.4 200 225.7 192 217.1
Penny, Brad SF 224.3 209 254.3 168 194.3

Game 1

Justin Verlander (108.2) vs Barry Zito (131.6)

Verlander had a 23 pt advantage over Zito in this matchup.  Something out of the ordinary had to happen in order for San Francisco to win.  And it did.  Pablo Sandoval hit 3HR in the game, the 4rd player to ever do that.

Game 2

Bumgarner (98.6) vs Fister (132.2)

Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in the game.  His excellent 98.6 rating shut down the Detroit bats.  San Francisco had a 34pt pitching edge and it showed.

Game 3

Vogelsong (130.9) vs Sanchez (139.5)

Vogelsong had the edge by 9 pts.  And look San Fran won again.

You know what.  We might just be on to something with this rating. We’ll have to see how the season plays out to see if it is an accurate representation of a pitcher’s value.

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Written by Dom

October 28, 2012 at 1:47 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Batter Rankings World Series Teams

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The numbers are complete for the World Series representatives.  Here’s how the players stack up with their Dynasty 2012 player cards.

Name Team CopsW vs LH LcOPS vs RH RcOPS Situation
Cabrera, Miguel DET 1.133 237 1.063 185 1.163 clutch
Posey, Buster SF 1.074 285 1.624 198 0.839
Cabrera, Melky SF 1.067 260 1.344 199 0.949
Fielder, Prince DET 1.059 193 0.899 231 1.128 clutch
Dirks, Andy DET 0.995 204 0.906 199 1.033
Jackson, Austin DET 0.986 208 0.963 206 0.995
Laird, Gerald DET 0.861 111 0.543 254 0.997
Pagan, Angel SF 0.857 148 0.764 180 0.896
Belt, Brandon SF 0.853 141 0.762 206 0.892
Garcia, Avisail DET 0.841 254 0.964 197 0.788
Scutaro, Marco SF 0.817 173 0.763 186 0.840 A-1B
Sandoval,Pablo SF 0.798 165 0.760 163 0.814
Infante, Omar DET 0.752 175 1.014 124 0.640
Avila, Alex DET 0.748 149 0.446 193 0.877
Sanchez, Hector SF 0.709 171 0.860 132 0.644
Pence, Hunter SF 0.706 116 0.667 153 0.722
Young, Delmon DET 0.703 178 0.971 112 0.588
Berry, Quintin DET 0.683 84 0.552 185 0.740
Blanco, Gregor SF 0.678 164 0.678 167 0.678
Holoday, Bryan DET 0.667 372 1.924 32 0.128
Arias, Joaquin SF 0.650 165 0.822 117 0.576
Pill, Brett SF 0.649 92 0.455 114 0.732
Peralta, Jhonny DET 0.649 131 0.618 133 0.662
Worth, Danny DET 0.623 264 0.915 142 0.498
Theriot, Ryan SF 0.611 149 0.651 154 0.594
Crawford, Brandon SF 0.608 130 0.562 130 0.628
Boesch, Brennan DET 0.608 124 0.553 115 0.632
Huff, Aubrey SF 0.568 132 0.587 170 0.559
Santiago, Ramon DET 0.542 84 0.422 176 0.594
Burris, Emmanuel SF 0.447 23 0.054 164 0.615
Kelly, Don DET 0.409 102 0.204 130 0.497
Nady, Xavier SF 0.406 112 0.624 59 0.313
Raburn, Ryan DET 0.330 87 0.405 64 0.298
Santos, Omir DET 0.294 0 0.000 105 0.420
Christian, Justin SF 0.167 46 0.096 69 0.197

Written by Dom

October 28, 2012 at 12:54 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Pitching Analysis 2012 WS Pitchers

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As I did with the batters in my last post, we’ll examine now pitchers for Detroit and San Francisco.

First the Raw data

Name cPvA vs LHB cPvL IR OR HGO HFO HB 1b (2-H) 1b SGO Deep? K 1b HFO SGO 2B WALK HFO GO vs RHB cPvR IR OR HGO HFO HB 1b (2-H) 1b SGO Deep? K 1b HFO SGO 2B WALK HFO GO
Verlander, Justin 108.231 80 104.912 44 23 42 15 0 7 7 14 2 161 15 15 15 26 25 20 28 87 111.55 45 22 32 17 8 16 16 18 0 137 33 17 17 3 19 23 36
Fister,Doug 132.157 102 129.384 48 21 47 14 4 17 17 17 14 110 33 14 16 35 0 19 33 108 134.93 61 12 64 7 10 16 16 19 5 98 30 7 19 0 46 11 38
Bumgarner, Madison 98.596 56 84.258 51 19 38 14 0 11 11 19 18 157 20 14 19 1 13 17 37 82 112.93 47 21 48 13 6 12 12 15 39 113 24 13 15 20 14 17 30
Cain, Matt 106.994 132 158.99 43 24 27 14 3 16 16 13 15 118 32 14 13 25 43 18 25 26 54.998 35 29 46 28 9 3 3 17 33 117 5 28 18 15 0 38 35
Vogelsong, Ryan 130.937 124 148.79 40 26 35 16 0 14 14 12 20 113 28 16 13 21 47 20 24 88 113.08 47 21 41 19 14 12 12 22 12 84 23 19 22 22 19 27 43
Hensley, Clay 185.449 145 170.747 47 21 93 0 16 18 18 0 46 91 35 0 0 0 74 0 0 175 200.15 49 20 0 17 4 15 15 21 0 71 29 17 21 26 90 22 42
Valverde, Jose 124.300 121 144.55 33 30 0 43 0 13 13 24 0 33 24 43 25 23 48 58 49 80 104.05 39 26 54 19 27 9 9 14 0 114 16 19 14 21 25 24 29

The old way of doing things was to just take a calculator and add up all the numbers on a pitcher’s card that resulted in a hit.  Justin Verlander’s 2012 card would have him listed as a 80/87.  Those are the numbers of a number 1 starting pitcher.  Sounds straight forward.

But what about the deep drive numbers?  What about infield and outfield range numbers?  Don’t those give the offense the opportunity to reach base as well?   Of course they do!

So now I’ve introduced cPvL/cPvR & cPvA.  These new ratings give a more accurate assessment of what a pitcher’s true numbers are by taking in to account the number of range plays & deep drive numbers listed on the card.

So lets take another look at Justin Verlander.  He was an 80/87.  Now with the new cPvL/cPvR his true numbers would be 104.9/111.55.

Look at that 25 more numbers vs Left-handed pitching & 24.5 added vs Right-handed pitching.

Is a 105/112 really #1 starter caliber?

Written by Dom

October 26, 2012 at 6:56 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Snap Shot Analysis – SF & DET cards

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As you all may know Dynasty released by email and online the 2012 World Series teams the Detroit Tigers and the San Francisco Giants.  A best of seven series is available to be played online(there is no fee just sign up for a 2-day free trial).  I played a series and Detroit won the series 4-1.  I have selected the 2 best hitting cards from each team and will analyze them using a new metric WcOPS, based on the cOPS rating which was developed last season.

First lets take a look at the raw data

Name WcOPS vs LHP cOPSL 3b 1b 1b LFO HR W K HBP 1b HGO 2b 1b GO FO vs RHP cOPSR 3b 1b 1b LFO HR W K HBP 1b HGO 2b 1b GO FO
Cabrera, Miguel 1.133 237 1.063 0 21 21 0 17 90 54 1 17 93 44 26 0 0 185 1.163 0 21 21 27 62 12 43 0 17 68 28 24 37 24
Posey, Buster 1.074 285 1.624 5 31 31 32 53 34 13 0 24 54 71 36 0 0 198 0.839 0 21 21 32 15 77 72 1 17 74 22 24 5 3
Fielder, Prince 1.059 193 0.899 4 19 19 27 19 49 59 16 23 73 30 14 19 13 231 1.128 0 21 21 21 38 66 9 24 26 58 18 17 39 26
Cabrera, Melky 1.067 260 1.344 14 36 36 31 37 46 22 0 28 63 21 42 5 3 199 0.949 22 32 32 19 6 19 24 0 26 25 23 39 70 47

The numbers were calculated from the player card vs. LHP and vs RHP.  Each column is how many “numbers” are within the given range.  For example Miguel Cabrera has 90 walk numbers vs LHP and 62 HOMERUN numbers vs RHP.  Adding all the on-base numbers on Miguel Cabrera’s card vs. LHP would make him a 237 vs LHP.

Name Team CopsW vs LH vs RH Situation
Cabrera, Miguel DET 1.1331 237 C 185 A Clutch
Posey, Buster SF 1.07448 285 A 198 B
Fielder, Prince DET 1.05909 193 C 231 A Clutch
Cabrera, Melky SF 1.06739 260 A 199 D

Hey what’s that WcOPS number there?

WcOPS is the hit numbers + slugging pecentage of both sides weighted more towards MLB averages.  In simple terms you face more RHP than LHP in SABLE so shouldn’t the metric be weighted as such?

 

Written by Dom

October 24, 2012 at 7:35 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Project for October

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Last year for my team I posted the cOPS ratings for my players. The link to that post is here.  This year I would like to do it for every card vs LH & vs RH.  Then as I do every year I will provide the draft scouting reports for every player before the draft & if it is complete BEFORE the date that keeper lists are due.

Of course this project is very time consuming.  So I will need some help.  I can create a spreadsheet with each team and player on it and people can either do specific teams or divisions and this will be completed in no time.

If I’m able to create a spreadsheet page online where everyone can edit it thats what i’d like to do.

Written by Dom

October 17, 2012 at 6:29 pm

Posted in Uncategorized