SABLE Baseball's Blog

SATURDAY AFTERNOON BASEBALL LEAGUE "Ding Dong…that pitch is DEAD!"

Dom’s AL & NL KEEPER LISTS

leave a comment »

My AL KEEPER LIST: BALTIMORE ORIOLES
#1. SP-Colby Lewis, TEX; #2. C-Joe Mauer, MIN; #3. 1B-Albert Pujols, ANA; #4. 3B-Evan Longoria, TB; #5. RF-Ichiro Suzuki, NYY.
-ROOKIES- P-Steve Johnson; P-Wei-Yin Chen; P-Miguel Gonzalez; P-Pedro Strop; 1B-Nick Johnson

My NL Keeper List: WASHINGTON NATIONALS
#1. P-Aroldis Champman, CIN; #2. P-Edwin Jackson, WAS; #3. SS-Jose Reyes, MIA; #4. LF-Matt Holiday, STL; #5. CF-Michael Bourne, ATL; #6 RF-Justin Upton, ARI.
-ROOKIES- P-Craig Stammen; C-Jhonathan Solano; 1B-Sandy Leon; 3B-Steve Lombardozzi; LF-Tyler Moore; and CF-Bryce Harper.

Written by Dom

January 21, 2013 at 4:32 pm

Posted in Keeper LIsts

UPDATE: My response to Steve Gardner of USA Today (only two years late)

leave a comment »

Recently Steve Gardner, USA Today’s fantasy baseball columnist, published a post on USA Today in which he drafted a fantasy baseball team to play in the SNBL, an online baseball simulation league.  In his article he listed his team and also asked “How would you arrange the batting order?”  Well, being an online baseball simulation player myself I’d like to answer that question here.

First off I am a big fan of Dynasty League  Baseball. I have played the board version since 1996 when I joined a 12 person tabletop baseball league, now in its 26th year called SABLE,  in central Massachusetts.  I also regularly play the online version vs human and AI controlled managers since 2011 and have won a few daily tournaments.  I enjoy the online game because it allows you to play against people from all over the United States and Canada, but there really isn’t anything like rolling the dice, finding the result, and imagining the game play out in your imagination.

As a side project each year when the Dynasty League Baseball game is published I like to create player reports.  These player reports I share with my SABLE friends and anyone who assisted in the process of creating them.  These reports break down a player card, list all the ratings for every player, and I also provide my own type of SABERMETRIC analysis. I did an analysis of Mr. Gardner’s Baltimore Orioles Team and created this Batter Report.  I will create a pitcher report for his team later this week.

I recently posted and article (https://sablebaseball.wordpress.com/2013/01/19/the-dom-carden-player-information-report-what-do-those-numbers-mean/) that explained the cOPS batter ratings.  If you are familiar to baseball statistics and OPS you should understand the concept behind the rating.  This is however just a game and there are no “stats” on a card to create real time batting average, slugging percentages, etc; although that is a very fun part of playing the game in  a league.

So in using the cOPS analysis I have determined that this is the lineup that Steve Gardner of USA Today should use in the SNBL.

First the starters by position vs RHP

C- Matt Wieters – I actually prefer Greg Zaun as the every day catcher but he has a limited use vs right handed pitching.

1b – Joey Votto

2b – Dustin Pedroia

ss – Jhonny Peralta – I chose Peralta because he has a higher WCOPR and error rating than Escobar that is greater than the difference in Range dropoff from C+ to C.

3b – Adrian Beltre

lf- Chris Coghlan

cf – Adam Jones

rf – Ichiro Suzuki

dh – Russell Branyan – if using DH

Now the batting order.

1st – Ichiro Suzuki

2nd – Dustin Pedroia

3rd – Joey Votto

4th – Adrian Beltre

5th – Russell Branyan

6th – Jhonny Peralta

7th – Adam Jones

8th – Matt Wieters

9th – Chris Coghlan

My personal opinion of this lineup.  I would actually have liked Ichiro to bat 2nd, Pedroia, Votto, and Beltre 3,4,5 but this team doesn’t really have a “lead off ”  hitter.  Its only once a game he’ll lead off an inning and after that Ichiro has a very good card for advancing runners, driving in runners from the bottom of the lineup, or beating out a possible double play, which actually helps the team because then Ichiro becomes an upgrade to any other baserunner on the roster.

On the positive side this team has overall good defensive ratings and very good error ratings so the team shouldn’t need to get any extra outs in the field.  Offensively you have a mix of baserunning, power, and the ability to drive in a runner from 1st at any time.  A runner on 1st base is in scoring position in this lineup.

One glaring defect is that his team is injury prone. I count 6 F durabilities including Pedroia and Coghlan who are starters.  If either of them go down you’re done for.  I mean Mark Derosa (D/5) is your backup 2b!  and all your OF replacements have C or worse range and +2 throwing arms.

Overall I think you did a good job!  Now go out and get ’em.

 

UPDATE: It wasn’t until after this post published that a discovered it was from 2 years ago.  Well don’t I feel stupid.  Anyways the mini project was fun and I’d love to analyze Steve again, 2012 team perhaps?  Everyone else you too can get a copy of my 2012 Player Reports to compare every card in the game.  Its only $15 and payable through paypal. Contact me for details.

Written by Dom

January 21, 2013 at 2:09 am

Posted in Uncategorized

New Format, New Teams, New Divisions

leave a comment »

SABLE 2012 set is mixing it up a little bit. We’re going to 18 teams in two leagues. There will be an AL pool with 9 AL teams and a NL pool with 9 NL teams.
Alvin – Anaheim; St Louis
Dom – Baltimore; Washington
Kenny – Boston; Chicago
Lynn – Houston; Miami
Mark – Oakland; Philadelphia
Mike K – Chicago; Cincinnati
Mike M – Texas; San Diego
Mike S – Seattle; Atlanta
Sherwood – New York; Arizona

The AMERICAN LEAGUE Divisions are:
#1 Oakland, Baltimore, Texas
#2 Seattle, Anaheim, New York
#3 Chicago, Boston, Houston

The NATIONAL LEAGUE Divisions are:
#1 Arizona, St Louis, San Diego
#2 Chicago, Miami, Cincinatti
#3 Washington, Atlanta, Philadelphia

Building you team:
Each team both AL & NL will submit a 6 man protected list AND any rookies the team wishes to sign. It is the responsibility of the manager to determine rookie status. Remember rookie status means that a player did not have a card the previous Dynasty season and has a card in the current season. Any player not submitted on a keeper list will be entered into the draft. Both League Keeper Lists must be submitted at the same time.

Draft:
There will be two drafts, 1 AL draft and 1 NL draft. In 2013, the 2012 season set, the AL draft will be first. Folowing the draft will be the AL season. WHen the AL season & playoffs is complete the NL draft will be occur. The NL will then play its season. The order of season will switch each year. So next year the NL draft will occur first and the AL draft second.

Schedule:
Each team will play 2 series vs each opponent outside their division and 3 series within the division. There will be no interleague games. The AL will use the DH the NL will not and pitchers must bat.
Divisional series will be 4 game series. Series outside of your division will be 3 game series. You will play a total of 60 games.

Playoffs:
The three division winners in each league will make the playoffs ranked #1, #2, #3. The two teams with the next best record will be Wild Cards ranked #4 & #5.
The first round of the playoffs will be a Best of 3 series- #5 @ #4 with all 3 games played at #4. Round 2 will be best of 5. 2-2-1 format Wild Card winner @ #1, #3 @ #2. The two 2nd round winners will play a best of 7 LCS 2-3-2 with the series opening at the park of the Highest remaining seed. The winner of the LCS will advance to the World Series and also be the manager for their league in the Dan Flynn Memorial All Star Game.

If both LCS have not been played, SABLE will hold its other League Draft and will play out the season.
If both LCS have been played, the two LCS winners will manage their league’s All STar Team.

ALL Star Game:
The All Star Game will take place after the completion of the 2nd LCS and must be played prior to the World Series since it determines home field advantage. The two World Series representatives will manage the All Star Game. The players will be chosen by voting after each regular season series. The players with the most votes by position will make the team as starters. The All Star managers will complete the remaining roster.

SABLE World Series:
Following the completion of the All Star Game the Sable World Series will begin. The format will be 2-3-2 with home field advantage belonging to the team that represents the league that won the Dan Flynn Memorial All Star Game. The Winner of the World Series will be declared League Champion.

Draft Order:
Draft order will be determined by record in the previous league with the non-playoff teams picking 1st-4th, the WC loser #5, the 2nd Round Loser wih worst record #6, the 2nd Round loser with the better record #7, the LCS loser #8, and LCS winner #9.

GOOD LUCK AND LETS HAVE A FUN YEAR!

Written by Dom

January 19, 2013 at 8:33 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

The Dom Carden Player Information Report : What do those numbers mean?

with one comment

A good question.  Here’s the answer.

FOR BATTERS:

You will notice ratings of WCOPS, COPSL, COPSR, vsLH, vsRH.  Well “vs” is the total number of hits (1b,2b,3b,hr) + walks + hbp results on a card in the range 0-499.  LH is vs Left Handed Pitching and RH is vs RHP.  So vsLH 175 means out of the 500 results on the left side of a batter card 175 of those the batter reaches base safely.

cOPS measure the offnsive productivity of a player card.  First you take the “vs” result then add to it the value of each hit (1-1b, 2-2b, 3-3b, 4-HR). Then subtract the walks & hbp and divide by possible results.  COPSL is vs Left Handed Pitching, COPSR is vs Right Handed Pitching.  WCOPS is the overall offensive value of the card weighted towards actual usage.  You will face more right handed pitching then left handed pitching so wCOPS is weighted a higher percentage towards the Right side.

COPS of .900+ is top notch.  These are your run producers.  Bat these players 3-5 in your line-up.  If your batter has a low COPS but high vsLH or vsRH rating bat them 1-2. These players will get on base more often than others to be driven in by your higher COPS rated batters.

FOR PITCHERS

For pitchers vs LH and vs RH are basically the same as for batters.  It is all the 1b, 2b, and Walk results of a pitcher card added together.  The lower the number the better chance the picther has of making an out.

However just adding the numbers up doesn’t take into account infield range, outfield range, and deep drive results.  Don’t batter’s reach base from those as well?

The answer is yes they do.  So I introduced PvL, PvR, and PvB. PvL is vs Left Handed Batter, PvR is vs Right Handed Batters, PvB is the overall value of a pitcher card taking into account the # of lefthanded, right handed, and switch hitters in the game.

The “Pv” rating (Pitcher vs.) rating takes into account the number of range plays and deep drives and other situtational ratings like jam, on, off on a player card and calculates how many of those will result in a hit and how many will result in an out. The result is an amount rounded to the nearest whole number.

This number gives you a better idea of how many times on a pitcher card will the batter reach base safely.  The lower the number the more effective the pitcher.

A PvB rating below 100 is a top of the line starter an ACE.  100-120 is an effective starter.

For relief pitchers below 80 is lights out! 80-100 is solid. 100-120 is effective. 150+ mop up guy.

Keep in mind PvB is an overall rating.  In  a bullpen relief situation I prefer to use PvL and PvR  since I can prepare for the handedness of the upcoming batters.  The situation does allow for a pinch hitter but if the PvB rating good your fans may not second guess your decision.

HAPPY GAMING AND BEST OF LUCK IN YOUR LEAGUE!

Written by Dom

January 19, 2013 at 12:55 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Playing around with WcOPS

leave a comment »

I was playing around with some of the old Dynasty cards and input the information to see how some of the great sluggers would fare with WcOPS.  My reaction was HOLY F*CKIN SH!T!!

These days you have a monster card if you have a WcOPS in the high .900s.  Three Barry Bonds seasons eclipsed that mark by 1 full point!  Not to mention the year Bonds hit 73 HRs isn’t even his best year for WcOPS. That distinction goes to  2004.  2004 Barry Bonds is the Platinum Standard for Dynasty cards.  I don’t see any hitter ever coming close to it.

 

 

Name Team WcOPS CopsL CopsR vsLHP PvL vsRHP
Bonds ’04 1.963 1.165 2.305 255 358
Barry Bonds ’01 1.956 1.648 2.088 285 314
Barry Bonds ’02 1.878 2.323 1.687 346 330
Ruth ’27 1.723 1.296 1.906 235 309
Gehrig ’27 1.603 1.405 1.688 264 270
McGwire ’98 1.587 1.370 1.680 251 261
Mantle ’61 1.493 1.455 1.510 280 255
McGwire ’99 1.356 1.475 1.305 231 213
Ted Williams ’46 1.335 0.526 1.681 194 311
Wilson ’29 1.265 1.150 1.314 237 235
Maris ’61 1.147 0.773 1.307 163 202
Sosa ’98 1.084 0.957 1.139 202 164

Written by Dom

December 8, 2012 at 10:53 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Pitching Rankings World Series Teams

leave a comment »

This analysis might just show why San Francisco has a 3-0 lead on Detroit in the World Series.   Lets compare the starting pitchers of each game and see if cPvA rating might have something to do with it.

First here are the pitcher rankings from best to worst for the Worls Series teams:

Name Team cPvA vs L cPvL vs R cPvR
Romo, Sergio SF 67.6 40 66.8 39 68.3
Benoit, Joaquin DET 93.6 82 104.5 56 82.7
Bumgarner, Madison SF 98.6 56 84.3 82 112.9
Cain, Matt SF 107.0 132 159.0 26 55.0
Verlander, Justin DET 108.2 80 104.9 87 111.6
Kontos, George SF 111.9 98 123.8 75 100.0
Dotel, Octavio DET 117.7 143 168.1 43 67.3
Valverde, Jose DET 124.3 121 144.6 80 104.1
Smyly, Drew DET 126.8 78 110.4 114 143.2
Casilla,Santiago SF 128.4 148 174.1 46 82.8
Vogelsong, Ryan SF 130.9 124 148.8 88 113.1
Scherzer, Max DET 131.5 166 193.6 36 69.4
Zito, Barry SF 131.6 59 83.1 149 180.2
Fister,Doug DET 132.2 102 129.4 108 134.9
Sanchez, Anibal DET 139.5 102 127.4 126 151.6
Mijares, Jose SF 140.0 74 97.8 156 182.1
Villarreal, Brayan DET 143.1 158 180.7 82 105.5
Alburqueque, Al DET 150.2 76 100.6 173 199.8
Marte,Luis DET 154.8 182 226.5 50 83.0
Affeldt, Jeremy SF 157.6 135 162.6 127 152.7
Downs, Darin DET 160.4 104 128.7 166 192.2
Balester, Collin DET 166.7 214 245.4 35 88.0
Below, Duane DET 168.2 151 179.1 122 157.3
Lincecum, Tim SF 170.0 130 158.4 148 181.6
Hensley, Clay SF 185.4 145 170.7 175 200.2
Porcello, Rick DET 188.9 181 210.7 141 167.2
Loux, Shane SF 191.8 101 141.1 217 242.5
Coke, Phil DET 198.0 117 142.1 224 253.9
Mota, Guillermo SF 200.3 245 254.1 107 146.6
Lopez, Javier SF 210.9 61 87.2 308 334.6
Putkonen, Luke DET 221.4 200 225.7 192 217.1
Penny, Brad SF 224.3 209 254.3 168 194.3

Game 1

Justin Verlander (108.2) vs Barry Zito (131.6)

Verlander had a 23 pt advantage over Zito in this matchup.  Something out of the ordinary had to happen in order for San Francisco to win.  And it did.  Pablo Sandoval hit 3HR in the game, the 4rd player to ever do that.

Game 2

Bumgarner (98.6) vs Fister (132.2)

Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in the game.  His excellent 98.6 rating shut down the Detroit bats.  San Francisco had a 34pt pitching edge and it showed.

Game 3

Vogelsong (130.9) vs Sanchez (139.5)

Vogelsong had the edge by 9 pts.  And look San Fran won again.

You know what.  We might just be on to something with this rating. We’ll have to see how the season plays out to see if it is an accurate representation of a pitcher’s value.

Written by Dom

October 28, 2012 at 1:47 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Batter Rankings World Series Teams

leave a comment »

The numbers are complete for the World Series representatives.  Here’s how the players stack up with their Dynasty 2012 player cards.

Name Team CopsW vs LH LcOPS vs RH RcOPS Situation
Cabrera, Miguel DET 1.133 237 1.063 185 1.163 clutch
Posey, Buster SF 1.074 285 1.624 198 0.839
Cabrera, Melky SF 1.067 260 1.344 199 0.949
Fielder, Prince DET 1.059 193 0.899 231 1.128 clutch
Dirks, Andy DET 0.995 204 0.906 199 1.033
Jackson, Austin DET 0.986 208 0.963 206 0.995
Laird, Gerald DET 0.861 111 0.543 254 0.997
Pagan, Angel SF 0.857 148 0.764 180 0.896
Belt, Brandon SF 0.853 141 0.762 206 0.892
Garcia, Avisail DET 0.841 254 0.964 197 0.788
Scutaro, Marco SF 0.817 173 0.763 186 0.840 A-1B
Sandoval,Pablo SF 0.798 165 0.760 163 0.814
Infante, Omar DET 0.752 175 1.014 124 0.640
Avila, Alex DET 0.748 149 0.446 193 0.877
Sanchez, Hector SF 0.709 171 0.860 132 0.644
Pence, Hunter SF 0.706 116 0.667 153 0.722
Young, Delmon DET 0.703 178 0.971 112 0.588
Berry, Quintin DET 0.683 84 0.552 185 0.740
Blanco, Gregor SF 0.678 164 0.678 167 0.678
Holoday, Bryan DET 0.667 372 1.924 32 0.128
Arias, Joaquin SF 0.650 165 0.822 117 0.576
Pill, Brett SF 0.649 92 0.455 114 0.732
Peralta, Jhonny DET 0.649 131 0.618 133 0.662
Worth, Danny DET 0.623 264 0.915 142 0.498
Theriot, Ryan SF 0.611 149 0.651 154 0.594
Crawford, Brandon SF 0.608 130 0.562 130 0.628
Boesch, Brennan DET 0.608 124 0.553 115 0.632
Huff, Aubrey SF 0.568 132 0.587 170 0.559
Santiago, Ramon DET 0.542 84 0.422 176 0.594
Burris, Emmanuel SF 0.447 23 0.054 164 0.615
Kelly, Don DET 0.409 102 0.204 130 0.497
Nady, Xavier SF 0.406 112 0.624 59 0.313
Raburn, Ryan DET 0.330 87 0.405 64 0.298
Santos, Omir DET 0.294 0 0.000 105 0.420
Christian, Justin SF 0.167 46 0.096 69 0.197

Written by Dom

October 28, 2012 at 12:54 am

Posted in Uncategorized